World War III is coming?

A popular little title on several web forums, sites usw.

A whole host of apocalyptical visions, with explanations ranging from the plausible to the more than highly improbable, often dosed with the latest interpretations of Nostradamus (an amazing cottage industry that is centuries-old and never seemingly proved wrong! Despite the multiple variations in the interpretations).

Most of the expectations of the conflagration to end all conflagrations start and end in the Middle East and involve Israel. OK, let us say that Iran is not to be trusted (even if Ahmedinajad is term limited, so with him it is 2013 or never, and the Mullahs - who hold the real power in Iran - have actually declared a fatwa on nuclear weapons!). Then Egypt looks potentially unstable, and I would expect that relationships between Egypt (where Islamic voices are becoming stronger) and Israel will sour, but to what extent ....

In which case I will play the secular equivalent of Devil's advocate (atheistic author's note - no "Devil" exists, and I cannot provide an alternative expression!), and offer you the following concept:

International war there may be, world war there will not.

The First World War was actually a traditionally evil European continental war that became internationalised due to the presence of the various European empires being dragged in (notably those of the UK and France). North America was represented throughout by Canada (a British dominion), even if the USA chose to stay out until 1917.

The Second World War had this combination of events plus the ongoing invasion of China by the Japanese (there is an argument that World War II had actually started already before 1939, in that  the Japan-China conflict was an important component of it, and Japan had already signed the axis with Nazi Germany and Italy in 1936). This time round of course, the USA stayed out till 1941.

A Third World War will not start on the European continent, and will not be between the traditional rivals on the continent, the EU will see to that (British Conservatives who can never keep their noses out of a good war must hate the EU for that reason alone!). And much to Israel's chagrin (and that of many people in the US Republican Party), Europe's perspective upon the Middle East is neutral (which does not incidentally equal being anti-Israel, nor pro-Iran), so rule out much by way of European presence in any international war in the Middle East, however much a Romney Presidency might try to drag NATO in.

Then there is China, who have no strategic interest in getting involved (not good for trade and that is all that matters these days). The same can be said for India. Japan and South Korea (at most limited support of any US involvement) I would not like to predict. The only Asian country (but hardly a power) which might have some influence on the matter is North Korea, who might happily supply wharrever they have by way of nuclear technology (but do not overrate that) to whichever side is opposing the USA.

And Russia? Often misunderstood by American Conservatives, they would actually be the best power broker to bring the whole situation to the peace table. Given the situation in their Southern provinces, they would certainly not be pleased to see any form of aggressive Islamic (Sunni or Shia) power on their doorstep, and they are somewhat less unfriendly towards Israel than is often claimed (see Medvedev's visit to Israel last year or the year before - I cannot remember the exact date). Taking sides again is not in their strategic interest.

So rule out a World War, and accept the fact at worst that there may be a very nasty local conflict which needs a lot of international diplomacy if we are to head it off.

Less apocalyptic maybe, less colourful for the producers of online graphics, and certainly not as predicted by Nostradamus or in certain weird interpretations of the Bible! In the latter case, I am prone to utter of course not (the usual nonsense!). However, probably better for all of us. We can instead start concentrating upon the important economic issues that are making the lives of so many people and other species on the planet so miserable. Eventually we might start getting round to reaching some positive solutions - if politics stops getting in the way and we stop thinking that bankers are the only significant people on the planet!