1. Syria, Islamic Riots and the return of Al Qaeda
Those in the media who were touting the "Arab Spring" must have woken up to a cold shower this week. The never-ending brutal civil war in Syria continues unabated with the continued incomprehension in the West. For those unaware a quick point - Syria is not an Islamic country with a fundamentalist régime, it is a secular country where there is a range of belief systems (Sunni and Shia Islam, 10% Christian, usw) and is run as a personal fiefdom by the Assad family.
President Assad has claimed that the uprising is driven by Al-Qaeda, whom he needs to crush (sound familiar?). True or not, Al-Qaeda this week called for Assad's overthrow, pretty much what the US and Europe want as well. Not since Reagan and the Afghan Arabs (see Osama Bin Laden) has such an alliance been in place!
Meanwhile an obscure film has appeared about the life of Mohammad, which depicts him as a pedophile, Gay, you name it. I have said enough times that I think that Islam is a load of superstitious junk (as are Judaism, Christianity usw), but I do not see the need for this sort of film, which is only provocative. That riots arose among the unsophisticated fanatical believers in parts of the world should not be surprising after what happened with the Danish Mohammad cartoons in 2006. That the US government was not involved in producing this is no more important to the rioters than the fact that the Danish government had nothing to do with the cartoons. Consequently embassies are attacked. Wharrever the positive developments of the "Arab Spring", some things do not change, as here.
In passing if in the glorious name of freedom of speech and freedom of communication, some offshoot of the NPD in Germany decided to produce a remake of "Jud Süss" (a favourite film of the Nazis in 1940) would that be OK? Personally having had a close friend in the 1980s who was the daughter of an Auschwitz survivor, I would find it offensive. I also suspect that the German government would, wisely, stamp on it! And if such a film were produced in, say, Iran? Beware double-standards, my friends!
Maybe as a result of this movie, maybe as a symbolic gesture from Al-Qaeda on September 11th, the US Ambassador to Libya and three other diplomats were killed. Our sympathies should go to their families, and the murderers need to rounded up and tried as the villains that they are regardless of any other motives. Heroes they are not!
2. The Euro saga - continued
The German Constitutional Court this week decided that Germany can support Italy and Spain with funds in order to support the bail out in those countries. Mixed reaction here (but not from me, I was relieved), as some people here think that Germany has enough problems of its own.
Spain and Italy though are different cases entirely from one another. Without the 2008 crash and the ensuing banking crisis (which happened late there), Spain would not have needed the bail-out. Italy meanwhile after years of the Berlusconi administration (for American readers a sort of cross between Donald Trump and George W. Bush - a flamboyant Conservative who couldn't balance the budget if he tried) had only itself to blame. Given that its current technocrat leader, former EU Commissioner Mario Monti, has made some improvements to the situation and needs encouragement to stay on, this might help.
The Euro would not have failed if the decision in Karlsruhe had turned out differently, but the zone would gave shrunk, which would have led to reduced business across the EU, yet more unemployment, more chaos, and more days of rejoicing for the **** speculators who already have far too much say in running our economies for their own benefit (think of all the juicy profits to be had with all those extra currencies to attack), as well as the grotesque rip-offs at exchange bureaux when going to / coming from Italy, Spain usw!
And as for those who wish to make propaganda out of this by using totally phoney misinformation (check out the EXP - the English Xenophobe Party, a better name IMHO than UKIP - which has all sorts of references on its site to the plummetting or plunging or dying Euro), the Pound Euro rate is as of this morning 1 GBP = 1.24 EUR, the last time that I quoted a rate (see "European economics - a quick quiz" dated 28/6/12 on this blog) it was 1 GBP = 1.25 EUR. Which means over 11 weeks of the "Euro crisis" the Pound has fallen 1 Eurocent against the Euro! The plummetting Pound!!!! And it is now 38 Eurocents down against the Euro over the past 3 years!
3. Dutch Elections
The principle driving forces behind the Dutch elections were the austerity plans resulting from the 2008 crash and from the state of the Euro, and what role the Netherlands should play in the current course of events. The government had fallen when the allegedly charismatic Geert Wilders, famed for his "kick all the Muslims out of Europe" stance, withdrew his party's support of the coalition because of differences on the austerity programme of the government.
For weeks it looked like a strange event was going to occur - the Dutch Socialist Party (not to be confused with the Dutch Labour Party - the more famous PvdA), which had started out life as the Communist Party of the Netherlands/Marxist-Leninist but has moderated somewhat over the years, looked the likely winner. Not that it likes the EU much and was hostile at least to all belt-tightening measures.
Eventually the vote was almost a text book result, the two major parties (the VVD who have in recent years replaced the fast fading Christian Democrats as the Netherlands' major conservative party, and the PvdA, led by a former Greenpeace activist (!)) won the majority of the seats and the likely outcome looks like what the Germans call a "grand coalition". The two parties did, despite their obvious differences, combine in a very successful coalition in the boom years of the mid-late 1990s, which offers some hope - those though were better times for the world economy.
Wilders's party in the meantime, having converted itself from an anti-Islamic party to an anti-EU and anti-Euro party (and is allegedly the favourite European party of EXP members, surprise, surprise!) lost heavily. And curiously ended up tied with the Socialist Party for third place, which given the mutual loathing the parties have for each other, is interesting!
It appears that the Dutch are none too eager to follow the path of austerity, but as they mainly tend to pragmatism (without that practical streak the Netherlands would be under water by now and not just economically!), the result is not surprising. Europe needs more jobs, more growth, more currency stability, more investment, far lower unemployment, far less debt and the removal of the threat of ensuing poverty and ruin, AND A BANKING SYSTEM THAT WILL BEHAVE ITSELF IN THE FUTURE! Which means investment not speculation! And planning for the future not trying to gain instant profit all the time! And intelligent use of resources (including human resources)! And an end to the supply of cheaply produced Chinese junk at overly-competitive prices due to a ludicrously low fixed exchange rate (which all European countries should insist on being floated in the same way as all other currencies are!)!
The objectives are clear. Getting there? Well - veel succes!
4. US Elections
This week I saw a stat that 90% of the people in Europe who were asked wanted to see Obama re-elected. Not sure what the basis was (people following what was going on, if not had they ever heard of Romney or did they know what he stands for?). The memories of Bush here are so bad though, you can understand the logic and what people here know of Romney is that he sounds like something of a Bush clone.
I also saw consecutive clips of Romney supporting parts of Obama's Health Care Act and a few hours later denying supporting any of it. This is not the first similar instant volte-face on various issues either.
All well and good if the voters do not care one way and the other, but assume that he does get elected and declares war on Iran. Changing his mind on that after 4 to 5 hours, how dumb will that look?
It isn't our business? In certain areas it isn't - try healthcare for example. In others though it is or will be (see other items on this blog where I explain this in detail), and the prospects of this indecisiveness are disturbing to say the least.
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