The War with Iran in 2013 and how Europe should react

Update (December 1st, 2021 - I thought about deleting this article. As we now know, Romney and Ryan did not win the 2012 Presidential Election and none of the things about which I warned occurred. Nonetheless I have left the article in the blog as the thinking behind it has some relevance. What might have happened is significant - and it could serve as a warning for the future. Iran's regime is by no means one to be admired, but another major Middle East war is definitely not needed either!).

I keep telling my American friends and contacts who are principally open-minded liberals (and generally good people - no anti-Americanism here!) about the disaster that is about to happen. Namely that Romney will win the US Presidency in November, and the Republicans will win both houses in Congress.

I get back from them the usual strange optimism that people were not born yesterday and it cannot happen. Sadly even American liberals suffer from the prime disease widespread in the US - over-optimism.

I finally noted an American liberal outlet yesterday that was prepared to agree with this assessment. Reality is finally striking home.

Even if the facts are that the Romney budget will increase, not decrease, the deficit; that unemployment will rise (sharply) not fall; that homelessness and poverty will increase massively while the rich get richer; that there will be more jobs (in China!); and that the chances are that more deregulation will lead eventually to a crash like that of 2008 only on an even bigger scale  - none of this will gain much attention amidst all the negative advertising and the masking of (OK blatant lies about) the issues.

If European governments can force their financial institutions to stay out of the mass gambling on Wall Street that will ensue (including the inevitable massive losses), some of the worst may be avoided but not much. The global economy is pieced together in such a way that the spin-offs cannot be avoided entirely. Things (mainly due to the on-going impact and side effects of the 2008 crash) are bad enough here. A repeat of that?  It doesn't bear thinking about.

And anyway are the non-nationalised European banks be going to be kept out of this mass gambling and losing heavily again - even remembering that the coffers are empty from last time, so there will be no-one to bail them out this time?

The one other aspect of the Romney agenda. Check out every survey on Bush's wars and how many Americans want to continue with them. A vast majority wanted out of the shambles in Iraq. A sizable majority want out of the still justifiable war in Afghanistan.

Romney has made quite clear that he (incorrectly) believes that Iran will have WMD (see Iraq), and they will not be allowed to have them. Translated: military action will be taken against Iran - who in 30-odd years of a regime that is by any stretch of the imagination internally disgustingly brutal, has still never launched an attack directly outside of its borders! Whether this means simply using air power, or a full-scale war .... Either way within the terms of international law, when the other party has not actually started anything it is not acceptable, even if the US (particularly when the Republican Party is in power) is not prone to take the slightest notice of such things.

Europe's response should be simple. We want absolute proof that there is a need for this action (better than you managed with Iraq!!!!), and not hearsay and not Israeli propaganda. Then if you can provide it (which you cannot!), we will provide logistical support only! No troops, no planes, just refuelling stops, use of air space usw.

The history of Europe is stamped with unnecessary wars over the centuries. Necessary action, as to bring the conflict in the Balkans to an end or end the illegal invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, can be justified, and that is about it. In other words action needs to be quick, sharp, purposeful and effective. War does not always liberate, in fact usually it creates for the civilian population concerned an even worse situation than what already exists including turning large numbers of them into refugees.

And whatever else, as much as I think that the intelligentsia in Teheran would love to see a more liberal regime, the chances are that the majority of Iranians are very much like their American counterparts - religiously conservative and prepared to select a government that reflects their beliefs/prejudices/superstitions. If we believe in democracy we are forced to accept that (nonsense as it may be), like it or not!