One of the stories of the weekend in Europe has been that of the elections in the region of Catalonia in Spain.
There has been some talk of an upcoming referendum upon independence from Spain - Catalonia is apparently one of the wealthier regions of the country, and given the financial desperation that the banking collapse has brought to Spain as a whole many Catalans see independence as a way out.
Nothing is ever easy of course.
Firstly there is no way, apparently, that such a referendum would be constitutional - there does not seem to be a quick and easy way of simply becoming a separate country if the region so desires - and in Madrid the impact of a referendum in Catalonia would also impact the volatile neighbouring Basque region, where calls for independence (and often violent methods of pursuing it) have been an issue for a generation.
And then with Catalonia there is not even an agreement who should take them down that road. The top two parties in the elections this weekend were both strongly for the referendum and the independence that would follow, the first a strictly Conservative party, the second a traditional Social Democrat party. Agree upon wanting independence? They do. Agree upon anything else? Mmmmmm.
If Catalonia did become an independent state, of course they would have everything Catalan (the way Slovakia has everything Slovak since it broke away, peacefully, from the former Czechoslovakia). Including its own sports leagues.
The pride of sporting Catalonia is FC Barcelona, probably the strongest football (North American = soccer) team in Europe over the past five years. Their major rivals in Spain forever and a day have been Real Madrid - still, for many, the biggest club name in European football.
Every year the teams meet twice in the Spanish championship, and very often in various cup competitions. The matches, known under the label "El Clásico", are as important in just about every respect (including revenue) as any games played anywhere any time.
Given an independent Catalonia, FC Barcelona would be playing in the Catalan League, Real in the remaining Spanish Championship, and but for possible encounters in the various European competitions, never the twain will meet! Exit "El Clásico"! And do not for a minute expect UEFA to agree to a "national" competition crossing borders.
So there is summat for the voters of Catalonia to consider if they ever get a referendum on independence! Will the significance of a very major sporting event play a role in deciding the region's future? We will see!
Tuesday, 27 November 2012
Saturday, 24 November 2012
Thailand, the Middle East, the secession of American states, and more turmoil
1. Thailand
A house divided among itself and becoming ungovernable?
The Shinawatras are to say the least controversial. The current Prime Minister though, Yingluck Shinawatra, is popular with a large body of the population - mainly the rural poor in the East and North of the country, which is perhaps weird given that her brother and the former Prime Minister, Thaksin (now in exile to avoid being jailed for corruption), is/was Thailand's richest man.
That her party won a landslide election victory last time round, though, is unquestioned - even with the accusations of vote-buying that invariably occur during Thai elections.
When we left Bangkok on Wednesday a lot of fears were being uttered about today's anti-government demonstration turning violent - fears that seem to have been confirmed:
http://news.yahoo.com/thai-police-fire-tear-gas-clash-hundreds-protesters-052421950.html
Not sure how accurate or neutral that report is, incidentally. The main opposition party, the Democrats, are supposed to have disapproved of the event. One other point - Thaksin is also alleged to have been publicly critical of the Thai royal family, which is actually an offence under Thai law (lèse-majesté)! This will explain the "royalist" references in the above piece.
On Thai television every day at 0800 and 1800 you get the Thai national anthem played along with a film showing the country's positive aspects (including Muslims from the South, as well the majority Buddhists, among the people shown), indicating its royal allegiance, and giving an indication of its military power - principally a warning to some neighbours like poverty-stricken Cambodia and pirates in territorial waters (reasons for the Thai navy getting all the free plugs would take some explanation otherwise).
It will not surprise me if, before long, the military does its usual thing and displaces the democratically elected government. In the name of re-establishing order usw. If Yingluck, who is far more personable than her brother, goes, the question follows as to which member of the family will succeed her as the party head. Like Communist North Korea, though, it is becoming something of a family fiefdom politically - although democratically elected and with no nuclear aspirations, yet at least.
2. The Middle East - Pat Buchanan's take
I may not approve of some his views regarding domestic policy (but how far that is my business ....), but his grasp of international affairs remains as good as any American commentator. That he does not buy into the Israeli lobby's one-sided take of affairs makes him controversial in his own country, but his assessment (article dated November 23rd if you get something else) strikes me as pretty neutral and factual:
http://www.creators.com/conservative/pat-buchanan.html
Unfortunately the window for Middle East peace seems to have closed some time ago, and the whole area has a Doomsday feeling about it. I regard Syria as the next Somalia given the divisions within the country and there is no way that the current conflict will end any time soon. Notably the opposition is united in its hatred of Assad, but divided among itself otherwise (notably Al-Qaeda has a presence in, but does not dominate, the opposition - does the West really like that idea?). Mr Buchanan's comments about Jordan are informative (and depressing), and the Arab Spring turning into the Arab Autumn (see my previous articles on this) seems to be following its inevitable path.
An area divided among itself? Finding things wrong is easy, finding solutions that work is another matter. Islam though is definitely NOT the answer.
3. States seceding from the US - peacefully
One of the fun concepts stemming from the recent US elections is the "sore loser" noises emanating from mainly Republican supporters who, apparently, now wish to leave the USA entirely.
I am somewhat surprised by the response from many Democrats. If Texas seceded, the rest of the country would become virtually a lock-in for the Democratic Party for years. There is the question of the Democrat supporters in Texas. Maybe this is the time for a bit of polite "ethnic cleansing" - Californian Republicans (facing a Democrat supermajority in both houses in the State Legislature (?)) could move to Texas, Texas Democrats could move to California in their place, all property rights exchanged to everyone's satisfaction, everybody could be happy - maybe? No guns to the head, no obligations, no American version of the former Yugoslavia or Iraq of course.
Just an idea.
A house divided among itself and becoming ungovernable?
The Shinawatras are to say the least controversial. The current Prime Minister though, Yingluck Shinawatra, is popular with a large body of the population - mainly the rural poor in the East and North of the country, which is perhaps weird given that her brother and the former Prime Minister, Thaksin (now in exile to avoid being jailed for corruption), is/was Thailand's richest man.
That her party won a landslide election victory last time round, though, is unquestioned - even with the accusations of vote-buying that invariably occur during Thai elections.
When we left Bangkok on Wednesday a lot of fears were being uttered about today's anti-government demonstration turning violent - fears that seem to have been confirmed:
http://news.yahoo.com/thai-police-fire-tear-gas-clash-hundreds-protesters-052421950.html
Not sure how accurate or neutral that report is, incidentally. The main opposition party, the Democrats, are supposed to have disapproved of the event. One other point - Thaksin is also alleged to have been publicly critical of the Thai royal family, which is actually an offence under Thai law (lèse-majesté)! This will explain the "royalist" references in the above piece.
On Thai television every day at 0800 and 1800 you get the Thai national anthem played along with a film showing the country's positive aspects (including Muslims from the South, as well the majority Buddhists, among the people shown), indicating its royal allegiance, and giving an indication of its military power - principally a warning to some neighbours like poverty-stricken Cambodia and pirates in territorial waters (reasons for the Thai navy getting all the free plugs would take some explanation otherwise).
It will not surprise me if, before long, the military does its usual thing and displaces the democratically elected government. In the name of re-establishing order usw. If Yingluck, who is far more personable than her brother, goes, the question follows as to which member of the family will succeed her as the party head. Like Communist North Korea, though, it is becoming something of a family fiefdom politically - although democratically elected and with no nuclear aspirations, yet at least.
2. The Middle East - Pat Buchanan's take
I may not approve of some his views regarding domestic policy (but how far that is my business ....), but his grasp of international affairs remains as good as any American commentator. That he does not buy into the Israeli lobby's one-sided take of affairs makes him controversial in his own country, but his assessment (article dated November 23rd if you get something else) strikes me as pretty neutral and factual:
http://www.creators.com/conservative/pat-buchanan.html
Unfortunately the window for Middle East peace seems to have closed some time ago, and the whole area has a Doomsday feeling about it. I regard Syria as the next Somalia given the divisions within the country and there is no way that the current conflict will end any time soon. Notably the opposition is united in its hatred of Assad, but divided among itself otherwise (notably Al-Qaeda has a presence in, but does not dominate, the opposition - does the West really like that idea?). Mr Buchanan's comments about Jordan are informative (and depressing), and the Arab Spring turning into the Arab Autumn (see my previous articles on this) seems to be following its inevitable path.
An area divided among itself? Finding things wrong is easy, finding solutions that work is another matter. Islam though is definitely NOT the answer.
3. States seceding from the US - peacefully
One of the fun concepts stemming from the recent US elections is the "sore loser" noises emanating from mainly Republican supporters who, apparently, now wish to leave the USA entirely.
I am somewhat surprised by the response from many Democrats. If Texas seceded, the rest of the country would become virtually a lock-in for the Democratic Party for years. There is the question of the Democrat supporters in Texas. Maybe this is the time for a bit of polite "ethnic cleansing" - Californian Republicans (facing a Democrat supermajority in both houses in the State Legislature (?)) could move to Texas, Texas Democrats could move to California in their place, all property rights exchanged to everyone's satisfaction, everybody could be happy - maybe? No guns to the head, no obligations, no American version of the former Yugoslavia or Iraq of course.
Just an idea.
Thursday, 22 November 2012
Postscript and an apology to my American readers
Well if nowt else I am a lousy pundit.
After months of predicting that Romney would win the US Presidential election, I was proved wrong. Unlike a number of other pundits (Barone, Morris usw) who not merely expected a Romney win (well actually a landslide), but wanted to see one, I am happy (but not ecstatic) at the outcome. The US will continue to recover slowly, there will be growth in areas other than the work of bankruptcy lawyers, and who knows, Europe might get carried along with it.
I also noted that the Democrats received more votes overall in races for the House of Representatives and lost by a wide margin. This can happen in "First past the post" systems and similar. Blair handsomely won the UK election in 2005 with 35% of the vote, while the awful Margaret Thatcher permanently wrecked the economy of the North of England and did considerable harm to that of Scotland while never getting more than 43% of the vote. Which speaks volumes for democracy (cough, cough).
Both Obama and I were in Thailand this weekend. The difference is there were no cheering crowds for me. I actually spent 3 weeks being dragged round all my wife's relatives. More chore than holiday, and more an exercise in seeing how she can waste money. I set a personal record in not spending a cent from my own pocket in the entire period. That we both have to spend the next 11 months living a Spartan lifestyle to pay for it .... enuff said!
Sounds a bit like some political thinking that I have heard over the years. Tax breaks and party for a month, and 11 months paying off the bill (well actually keep partying and not paying off the bill thinking about it - just run up the debt, you may have grandchildren who might eventually cough up for it).
Still not sure, dear regular reader, that I will be writing any more incidentally. We will have to see!
After months of predicting that Romney would win the US Presidential election, I was proved wrong. Unlike a number of other pundits (Barone, Morris usw) who not merely expected a Romney win (well actually a landslide), but wanted to see one, I am happy (but not ecstatic) at the outcome. The US will continue to recover slowly, there will be growth in areas other than the work of bankruptcy lawyers, and who knows, Europe might get carried along with it.
I also noted that the Democrats received more votes overall in races for the House of Representatives and lost by a wide margin. This can happen in "First past the post" systems and similar. Blair handsomely won the UK election in 2005 with 35% of the vote, while the awful Margaret Thatcher permanently wrecked the economy of the North of England and did considerable harm to that of Scotland while never getting more than 43% of the vote. Which speaks volumes for democracy (cough, cough).
Both Obama and I were in Thailand this weekend. The difference is there were no cheering crowds for me. I actually spent 3 weeks being dragged round all my wife's relatives. More chore than holiday, and more an exercise in seeing how she can waste money. I set a personal record in not spending a cent from my own pocket in the entire period. That we both have to spend the next 11 months living a Spartan lifestyle to pay for it .... enuff said!
Sounds a bit like some political thinking that I have heard over the years. Tax breaks and party for a month, and 11 months paying off the bill (well actually keep partying and not paying off the bill thinking about it - just run up the debt, you may have grandchildren who might eventually cough up for it).
Still not sure, dear regular reader, that I will be writing any more incidentally. We will have to see!
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